Marine futures
AFMEC: Alternative Future Scenarios for Marine Ecosystems
AFMEC is a
strategic project being funded under Defra's "horizon scanning"
initiative.
The goal of this study has been to encourage debate about
alternative futures for marine ecosystems, and to
develop a series of future scenarios that can be used by Defra and
other stakeholders for strategic planning.
This project has been undertaken by an alliance of four
complimentary organisations:
Background
The "horizon scanning" programme was established by Defra's
Chief Scientific Adviser in 2002, to improve Defra's capability to
anticipate and prepare for new science risks and opportunities.
Horizon scanning research should encourage crosscutting thinking in
natural and social scientific activities and research. For more
information go to: http://www.defra.gov.uk/horizonscanning.
A set of four contrasting AFMEC "futures" have been developed,
detailing how marine ecosystems might look and how activities in
the marine environment might develop over the next 20-30 years,
given assumptions about climate change and socio-political
development.
In elaborating these four "futures", this project has built upon
earlier scenario exercises. It aims to complement work carried out
by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), and the Office of
Science and Technology (OST).
The scenario framework segments the future "possibility space"
into four quadrants following other work on scenario development.
Here scenarios are defined by a "societal values" axis (ranging
from consumerism to community) and a "governance" axis (ranging
from autonomy to interdependence). The four scenarios are: World
Markets, Fortress Britain, Local Stewardship and Global
Commons.
- The World Markets scenario assumes the
prevalence of materialist and libertarian social values operating
within interdependent and globalised governance systems.
- The Fortress Britain scenario assumes
individualistic and conservative social values, and a reinforcement
of a national governance system and identity.
- The Local Stewardship scenario assumes
tolerant, community-oriented social values encouraging co-operative
self-reliance and regional development.
- The Global Commons scenario attempts to
reconcile growth and sustainability, where sustainability is seen
from a global perspective, including the maintenance of
biodiversity, the protection of global commons (the atmosphere,
oceans, wilderness areas) and fair access to environmental
resources.
In AFMEC, each of the four "futures" is elaborated with respect
to: climate and hydrography, fisheries and aquaculture, tourism,
ports and shipping, nutrients and contaminants, aggregate
extraction, oil and gas extraction, offshore renewable energy
production, flood and coastal defence, biodiversity and
conservation.
Extreme, low-probability high-impact geological, astronomical,
climatic, ecological and socio-political "shock" events are also
considered and the likelihood of them occurring under each AFMEC
scenario.
The AFMEC technical report concludes with an exploration of how
the AFMEC scenarios might be used in the future, plus a discussion
focussing on how they might be further quantified and elaborated
upon.